Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
